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Trump-inspired candidate wins Poland’s presidential election

Trump-inspired candidate wins Poland’s presidential election
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Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from Donald Trump, has won Poland’s presidential election.

Mr Nawrocki secured 50.89% of votes while his opponent, Liberal pro-EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, took 49.11%.

Earlier, an exit poll called the result the other way around – with both men declaring victory.

Mr Nawrocki, 42, had positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, aligning himself with US conservatives, including Mr Trump, and showing scepticism towards the EU.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski gestures after the exit poll announcement of the second round of presidential election. Pic: Reuters
Image: Rafal Trzaskowski in Warsaw after the exit poll announcement. Pic: Reuters

Meanwhile, Mr Trzaskowski, 53, had promised to ease abortion restrictions, introduce civil partnerships for LGBT+ couples and promote constructive ties with European partners.

The vote has been closely watched in neighbouring Ukraine as well as in Russia, the European Union and the United States – with the election being framed as Poland choosing between more liberal norms or a more nationalist path.

Presidential candidate Karol Nawrock addresses supporters at his headquarters after the presidential election runoff in Warsaw, June 1
Image: Karol Nawrocki addresses his supporters. Pic: AP

This runoff follows a tightly-contested first round of voting in May, which saw Mr Trzaskowski win just over 31% and Mr Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.

More on Poland

Mr Nawrocki won the vote despite discussions about his past dominating the last days of the campaign – from questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner to an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls.

“Everything was on a knife edge,” said 32-year-old IT specialist Patryk Marek. “Feelings are for sure mixed for this moment. But how small this margin was, it tells us how divided we are almost in half as voters.”

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Poland’s new president will have significant influence over whether the country’s centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.

Led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the government had struggled to pass legislation with Poland’s previous president in power and may find the same is true once Mr Nawrocki is sworn in.

Like his predecessor, Mr Nawrocki is expected to block any attempts by the government to liberalise abortion or reform the judiciary.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was convinced the EU could continue its “very good cooperation” with Poland.

“We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home,” she said.

There has been some discussion about whether a win for Mr Nawrocki could lead to fresh elections in Poland.

Jacek Sasin, a politician for the opposition Law and Justice party, said: “The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won.”

Tusk ‘stuck in first gear’ – but will new president take nuclear option?

The exit polls nearly got this right. They predicted a very tight finish, which we got.

They thought the turnout would be high, and it was. They only got one thing wrong – but that was the big one.

So rather than the narrow victory for Rafala Trzaskowski that had been predicted, Poland’s next president will be the former historian, Karol Nawrocki, winner with just under 51% of the vote.

But this was a winner-takes-all contest. The margin counts for little, set aside the simply fact of triumph.

Nawrocki is allied to the Law and Justice party – the PiS – just like the previous president, Andrzej Duda. And, just like Duda, he’s almost certainly going to become a thorn in the side of the country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk. In fact, he might well be more active than even Duda was in trying to thwart Tusk.

That’ll mean a brake on Tusk’s reform programme and on his efforts to return Poland to the heart of the European Union.

If Trzaskowski had won, Tusk’s programme would have gone full speed ahead. Now, it’s stuck in first gear.

It’ll mean arguments over social change – Tusk wants to support LGBTQ+ rights; Nawrocki is socially very conservative. And it will mean a loud voice in Polish politics for those who think Poland should take its lead from Donald Trump rather than Donald Tusk.

But there is a nuclear option, which might involve Nawrocki blocking the budget and potentially triggering snap elections.

Poland is a crucial EU member – it has the sixth biggest budget in the block and it borders seven different countries, including Germany, Ukraine and the Russian territory of Kaliningrad.

Strategically, it is pivotal. Politically, it now looks volatile.

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